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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 3, 2012 - 3:07 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s corrective bounce ended abruptly Wednesday. The reaction seemed somewhat outsized compared to the news that triggered it, so I may be lowering my next target soon.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s touch of 70.55 support did prove to be the range’s lower-end when Wednesday gapped up to test the 80.10 prior high at the range’s upper-end. A breakout must trigger without delay Thursday to extend the rally, or else a drop back to and through the range’s lower-end would become likely.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s temporary intraday probe above prior highs did prove to be “ineffectual optimism” when Wednesday slid back to Monday’s 1.2900 close. That’s less damaging than the session could have been, so a bounce back above 1.2955 would be credible for triggering a rally targeting the 1.3100 area.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s narrow intraday ranging offered no new information, other then to confirm the rally’s momentum is not reliable.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Like Gold, Wednesday’s narrow intraday ranging offered no new information, other then to confirm the rally’s momentum is not reliable.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Overnight strength up to 150-06 was erased before Wednesday’s open to range narrowly intraday. That would have sufficed for the false break we have been monitoring, but the non-reaction disqualifies it. Still awaiting a fresh high to be rejected, or an open under 148-10, to reverse momentum down.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Two-three days spent ranging in and around 91.20-93.00 did contain the corrective bounce from testing the drop’s 89.75 target. The 87.00 target remained in-play, as Wednesday’s gap down that extended to fresh lows at 88.00 has confirmed.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 3.58 target was denied in favor of opening 1 penny under the 3.45 pullback limit and extending down another dime. Back above 3.45 Thursday would reinstate the rally’s momentum.

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Posted in Daily Spot