Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Sometimes we can be our own best (contrary) indicators. Wednesday’s deep plunge to fresh lows had me entertaining whether to lower my target. Of course, Thursday recovered almost the entire plunge.
Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Without immediately extending to fresh highs after Wednesday’s peak at the range’s upper-end, a drop back to and through the range’s lower-end was likely. Thursday’s open gapped down back to Tuesday’s 79.80 close and then slid below prior lows to 79.35, next targeting 79.00.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s dip from Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” was less damaging than the session could have been. In fact, it neutralized the attraction back down to Monday’s 1.2900 close. Thursday’s gap up above the 1.2955 buy signal extended higher intraday to 1.3040, targeting the 1.3100 area next.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Narrow extended ranging around 1780.00 had established that the rally’s sponsorship had worn thin, but also that sellers were not ready to retake control. Thursday’s gap up to fresh highs attacking 1798.00 suggests the final upleg targeting 1814.00 is underway.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s gap up above 35.00 did not extend higher, and the balance of the day ranged choppily around 35.00. But the initial reaction down did essentially fill the gap back to Wednesday’s close, so a second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm 36.75 is in-play.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Drifting lower Thursday to probe slightly under the past week’s lows at 148-27 is too shallow and hesitating to be credible for triggering a durable drop. Closing under 148-10 could be bearish, but the dip should otherwise recover to probe recent highs up to 150-16.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s gap up to 88.80 extended sharply higher intraday to test 91.80. That might seem to reject Wednesday’s even deeper drop, but it does not. The pattern may yet go on to do so, and can firm further to retest 93.55 before reversing down. Regardless, gapping up from Wednesday’s 88.00 close and trending up sharply reflect too much optimism at a low to form a durable bottom.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday morning firmed but did not recover the 3.45 buy signal that would resume the rally, and reinstate its 3.58 and 3.75 targets.
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