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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 17, 2012 - 2:51 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas walked right up to its tipping point Wednesday, but couldn’t push the bounce any higher. Better luck Thursday with the EIA report?

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Closing under Tuesday’s 79.40 low would have targeted 79.00, which was tested almost immediately Wednesday morning. Any lower close would target a retest of prior lows at 78.65, and then new lows at 78.30.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s gap up followed Tuesday’s, being a second consecutive higher close that confirms 1.3200 and potentially 1.3425 are in-play. Being within a prior range, the rally would be invalidated by closing back under 1.3100 support.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Dipping down to 1744.00 intraday Wednesday was recovered back up to Tuesday’s 1754.00 highs. Buyers gained no new traction in preventing sellers from signaling a momentum reversal, so the next dip should extend down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s bounce back to the relevant 33.00 level was exceeded Wednesday to fresh highs at 33.30. Back under 33.00 would trigger a retest of this week’s 32.57 low.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The drop extended much further to 146-21. That is deep enough to prove the prior rally was only a corrective bounce. That allows another corrective bounce, only shallower, triggered above 147-04 and targeting 148-00.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Without quickly exceeding 93.00 at Wednesday’s open, attacking it to within only 15 cents was retraced entirely back down into negative territory. Now closing under 91.50 and 91.20 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Closing above 3.48 would signal that momentum had reversed up, but it held as resistance Wednesday despite being pierced intraday by 2 cents. It was tested up to 3.50, whose recovery now would put into play 3.75.

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Posted in Daily Spot