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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 18, 2012 - 3:14 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas’ reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was well-timed to leverage a weak pullback. But its follow-through needs at least one more session to confirm.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s dip to the 79.00 target was recovered Thursday back up to 78.40, Tuesday’s low whose break had put into play 79.00. This is only noise, and does not preclude there being a retest of 79.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s dip back under 1.3100 undermines the rally’s momentum. But the rally should still launch another upleg so long as the pullback avoids a second consecutive lower close Friday under Thursday’s ~1.3060 low.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s open gapped down under Wednesday’s 1744.00 low, which was retested as resistance through the afternoon, and which was still being tested at the close. Back under 1740.00 should resume the drop’s momentum at least to fulfill its 1727.00 target.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping down Thursday to 32.75 did not generate enough momentum to break away from 33.00. But a retest of the 32.57 low is likely.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Firming at Thursday’s open was reversed to fresh lows at 146-10. Closing under 146-06 would invalidate the potential for a bigger corrective bounce up to 148-00.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Gapping down to 91.50 and extending under the 91.20 sell signal to 90.66 still did not launch a new downleg. The morning’s consolidation was retraced back into positive territory up to 92.59, still closing flat around 92.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s reaction to the EIA report surged through 3:50 by nearly a dime, launching a new upleg targeting 3.75, still needing a second consecutive higher close Friday above 3.62 to confirm. Pullbacks must hold 3.50 support.

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Posted in Daily Spot