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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | October 23, 2012 - 2:21 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil met its longstanding target Tuesday, and then some. Gold retested its prior low as expected, and then some. Immediately bottoming on such strong momentum is unlikely.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap up extended higher to retrace back to two-week old prior highs. If its natural resistance were to trigger a reaction down, I would expect it to recover for a fresh high.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s gap down extended back to its original 1.2955 support, which one week earlier had launched a gap up without any signal. Closing any lower would trigger a new downleg. There is otherwise no signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s retest of the 1716.00 low was expected, regardless of how deeply it would be probed intraday. And it was probed deeply, gapping down to 1709.00 and extending at one point down to test 1705.00. But there was no extension or rejection, so a bottom here would depend upon gapping up back above 1716.00 and extending higher to form an Island of Tuesday’s range. Otherwise, if not gapping, Tuesday is likely to gap down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) A retest of 32.00 was needed before a bottom could complete. Tuesday’s open gapped down through its 31.57 prior low and consolidated back up to 32.00. A break higher Wednesday would be credible for at least retesting 33.00 as resistance.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s gap down held 147-00 support to keep alive the 148-00 corrective bounce target. Tuesday’s gap up to Friday’s 147-21 high quickly met 148-00, which held. There is no new signal.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s gap down immediately fulfilled the longstanding 87.45 target, testing it down to 85.69, with room for noise down to 85.25. Almost any lower would target 82.40.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday’s test of the critical 3.44 level was retraced enough Tuesday to test the original 3.50 buy signal. But the new 3.55 buy signal was only tested as resistance.

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Posted in Daily Spot