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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | November 9, 2012 - 3:09 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Weekends always offer clarity, so it was interesting how this one was greeted. Trending that was underway extended slightly, but not enough to suggest last-minute positioning ahead of the weekend’s illiquidity. That suggests any initial trending Monday would be credible for extending into the week.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Gapping up above prior highs Friday did not extend higher intraday. Two consecutive sessions of gapping up must extend higher aggressively Monday to avoid a deep pullback.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The only way to extend lower Friday from Thursday’s drop was to gap down, which Friday’s open did, but then did not extend lower intraday. Again. The trend nevertheless remains down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The recovery extended higher Friday to test 1739.40. Back under 1724.00 would trigger another attempt to test 1700.00, which would be unlikely to hold as support.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s higher highs were the highest in weeks, continuing the ouperformance vs. Gold. Back under 32.25 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A pullback to 150-10 was not even attempted Friday as an overnight flight-to-safety encouraged gapping up to fresh highs at 152-08. Its reaction down intraday to 151-00 did not gain traction, and has potential for testing 152-16.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s shock to the system from 89.22 down to 84.00 that was absorbed Wednesday and Thursday, was also retraced Friday up to 86.77. No relevant resistance was recovered, bug closing above 86.50 would be likely to add a quick $3, while closing under 85.35 would likely lose $3.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s retest of Tuesday’s late surge to 3.61 had every opportunity to extend higher into and out of the weekend. Instead, it reacted by gapping down to 3.53 prior lows Friday — and this time, extending to fresh lows at 3.48. A second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm the downtrend has resumed.

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Posted in Daily Spot