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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | November 14, 2012 - 3:03 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natural Gas lifted sharply higher Wednesday to confirm a reversal signaled over the prior two session. The second most timely scenario continues to be Crude Oil, but for an entirely new and dangerous reason.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Although Tuesday’s reversal from fresh highs failed to extend into negative territory, the reversal did extend lower Wednesday. Initially. The close was essentially flat, allowing the rally to resume Thursday.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Although Tuesday’s recovery from fresh lows failed to extend into positive territory, the recovery did extend higher. Wednesday’s open gapped up above the three prior sessions to test 1.2785. Back under 1.2715 would resume the decline, targeting 1.2400.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Ranging persisted Wednesday around 1727.00, instead of extending higher as a new upleg. Closing under 1717.00 and 1714.50 would confirm momentum had reversed down targeting at least 1700.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Fresh recovery highs attacked the 33.00 target to within a dime. There is no requirement to extend any higher, but back under 32.25 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s test of the 152-16 target to within 1 tick did react down sharply Wednesday, attacking the 151-08 reversal signal to within 2 tick. All was retraced back unto positive territory, and Tuesday’s 152-00 close was still being tested at the close. Now closing under 151-18 would signal momentum reversing down, while fresh highs would target 152-30 and potentially 153-14.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Israel’s reaction to ongoing shelling from Gaza couldn’t help but incite Crude Oil to firm. The bounce seemed restrained compared to the substantiality of Israel’s response, peaking under Friday’s 86.70 high. Despite the continued delay in resuming the decline, a fresh low would still trigger its 81.85-82.50 target.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s rally extended sharply higher Wednesday to test 3.80, confirming new highs above 4.00 are in-play.

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Posted in Daily Spot