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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | November 26, 2012 - 2:47 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s consecutive 61.8% retracements suggest the range is ready to resolve, in one direction or the other. I would hope that means down, because upside breakouts like the one indicated typically begin with some geopolitical event.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow inside day consolidated Thursday and Friday’s decline from Tuesday and Wednesday’s test of 81.00-81.05 resistance. At least one lower low to 79.75 is likely before any recovery could be considered credible.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s narrow inside day consolidated last week’s surge up to 1.2995. Resuming the rally would have potential up to 1.3050.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s $20 surge to fresh highs above 1735.00 was consolidated Monday. The rally should also visit 1763.00, where the pattern will decide between reversing back down, or else extending to new highs at 1802.50 or higher.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) By consolidating Friday’s rally Monday around 34.00 instead of already rejecting it, the rally is likely also to test 34.50. Closing any higher would target 36.00 and higher.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Sunday night’s rally through the 150-14 bounce limit was never touched intraday. Almost, to within 2 ticks, when the 151-05 high was retraced into the close. Extending down immediately would be credible for resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s bounce back pu to 88.55 retraced 61.8% of the drop from last Monday’s 89.80 high. This Monday’s drop back to 87.25 retraced 61.8% of Friday’s bounce. This pattern should now be ready to resolve. Under 86.70 would signal a new downleg underway, but above 88.50 would target new highs.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Last Tuesday and Wednesday’s buy signal and confirmation have yet to produce a higher close than 3.90. That’s still likely, despite Monday’s open gapped back down to 3.75 where last Tuesday’s session began. But now a close back above 3.82 is needed to resume the rally.

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Posted in Daily Spot