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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | November 28, 2012 - 2:32 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude’s twin Fibo retracements resolved as was expected Wednesday. So far. The question is whether it will now retest prior lows.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap up held 80.55 resistance to keeps alive the drop’s 79.75 target. Reversing to close negative also kept alive potential for a new downleg.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gapping down Wednesday to 1.2880 was recovered back up through 1.2915 to Tuesday’s 1.2935 close to prevent sellers from gaining traction.Back above 1.2955 would target 1.3050.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s test of 1741.50 needed to be the pullback’s low, so that recovering 1750.00 would resume the rally. Wednesday’s plunge to 1705.50 ended that. Recovering 1714.50-1717.00 makes a bounce up to 1727.00 likely before extending down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down to 33.50 and its lower low at 32.90 both were recovered intraday up to 33.75. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts. But the rally’s resumption requires holding 33.15 as support if retested.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s test of 151-24 was retraced back under prior highs. That selling pressure did not trap shorts, since lower prior highs weren’t really probed intraday. This “ineffectual optimism” can’t tolerate any further weakness without also retesting 150-14 and probably also breaking it.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The consolidation ended abruptly by gapping down sharply under 86.70 Wednesday to new 2-week lows. Closing under 85.75 would confirm that 82.00 is in-play.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Monday and Tuesday’s pullback had held last week’s lows to keep alive potential to trigger a buy signal. Wednesday’s gap down to 3.70 tried to invalidate that.by probing fresh lows. But the close recovered the intraday dip. Extending higher Thursday after the EIA report would target 3.90.

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Posted in Daily Spot