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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | November 30, 2012 - 2:33 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If Gold isn’t following Crude Oil higher, then should be on its way to fresh lows. And possibly Crude Oil shouldn’t be hovering so high.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday’s close above 80.13 suggests that a bottom is forming. A second consecutive higher close, especially above 80.45 would confirm. Otherwise, the decline is vulnerable to resuming.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Although Friday’s fresh high did not extend, it did prove that Thursday’s fresh high did not peak. 1.3050 remains alive, so long as 1.2955 holds as support.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Having held its 1729.50 (basis Feb, 1727.00 basis Dec) bounce limit Thursday, the decline was free to resume. Friday’s drop to 1710.00 (basis Feb, 1708.40 basis Feb) closed under 1717.00-1719.50 (basis Feb, 1714.50/1717.00 basis Dec) to further confirm the new downleg underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s open plunged under the 33.90 pullback limit to attack 33.20. Just closing under 33.55 suggests that momentum has already reversed down. A second consecutive lower close would confirm.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The “ineffectual optimism” at recent highs continued Friday by gapping up to Wednesday’s 150-14 high and failing to extend any higher. Back under 149-18 would target 149-04 and probably resume the decline.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Since Thursday’s gap up that rejected Wednesday’s gap down did not extend higher immediately Friday, the wide sideways range was likelier to persist into the weekend. The session did eke out fresh highs for the week to attack 89.00. But again for Monday, not trending higher immediately would make sideways ranging likelier.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Although Thursday’s new low close never probed fresh lows intraday, the drop extended down sharply Friday instead of finally triggering any buy signal. There is no active pattern.

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Posted in Daily Spot