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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 10, 2012 - 2:38 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s afternoon break presumably put into play new lows around 82.00. Even if the break had developed early in the day, a second consecutive lower close is still needed for confirmation.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s narrow inside day did not change that so long as 80.10 holds as support, the rally is next targeting 81.00.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s narrow inside day did not change that so long as 1.3000 is not recovered, the drop is next targeting 1.2825.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s fresh low and its recovered created potential for bouncing above 1710.00, probably to 1720.00 or 1725.00. Monday’s rally to almost 1719.00 should extend higher so long as 1710.00 now holds as support.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap up to test 33.50 held above 33.25 intraday to put into play 34.00, so long as 33.25 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Slicing through 150-14 on the way down to 149-11 Friday had expended a lot of energy, making it a struggle to close under the 149-18 sell signal. Monday’s gap up probing 150-00 was retraced entirely to test 149-18, which was still being tested as support again.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Any fresh low under 85.85 would still be likely to resume the drop targeting 81.85-82.50. Monday’s open gapped up to avoid the fresh low. But a very late drop fell to test 85.35, presumably triggering a new downleg, needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Tuesday.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Retracing Wednesday’s rally Friday rather than resuming it made no rally effort credible without first probing under 3.53. Monday delivered that by gapping down to 3.44 and ranging sideways through the day. Only a gap up Tuesday back above 3.53 would be credible as a near-term buy signal.

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Posted in Daily Spot