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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 13, 2012 - 2:50 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s corrective bounce targets were rejected forcibly overnight. More important is how quickly the ground gave way after Wednesday’s close, as if markets only believed the Fed while it was speaking.

Dollar Basket Dec Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The fresh low overnight reversed only slightly into positive territory Thursday, which is technically bullish, but not decisive. Rejecting another fresh low would be more credible, or else rallying immediately into the weekend.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The fresh high overnight reversed only slightly into negative territory Thursday, which is technically bearish, but not decisive. Rejecting another fresh high would be more credible, or else sliding immediately into the weekend.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The overnight reaction down from Wednesday’s test of the 1720.00-1725.00 bounce target had already broken under the 1713.00-1710.00 sell signal to eventually test 1691.00. A bounce to 1703.50 could be retested before the drop resumes to test 1685.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s attack on the 34.00 target was rejected more forcibly than Monday’s breakout attempt, as Thursday’s open gapped down to the 32.65 prior lows and extended lower to 32.30. The outperformance vs. Gold is no longer evident.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s gap down from 148-00 extended to within 9 ticks of the 147-00 target before bouncing back into positive territory at 148-10. Closing in negative territory maintains the drop’s momentum, regardless of the intraday bounce.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s gap down ranged around 86.50 throughout the day. Its break would resume the decline next targeting the 82.00 area.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s fresh low again makes a buy signal impossible to trigger on Friday.

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Posted in Daily Spot