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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 19, 2012 - 3:01 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold didn’t extend down Wednesday, while Silver did extend down — sharply. It’s not divergent price action, but one more day of anything similar would make Silver likely to snap back up — sharply.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gap down was recovered immediately to test Tuesday’s lows as resistance. While the gap down to fresh lows does require a retest, it’s not required to break lower, and would be vulnerable to producing at least a corrective bounce.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday’s open gapped up to a new recovery high just short of 1.3330 resistance before reversing back down to Tuesday’s 1.3252 high. At least the gap’s new high should attract price back up, where closing above 1.3330 would confirm a bigger upleg underway targeting 1.3640. Color me skeptical.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s plunge did not extend down Wednesday, and only briefly probed fresh lows. Not confirming the plunge with a second consecutive lower close means that a bottoming process can form. No lower close Thursday would suggest as much.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s fresh low should still extend down to 30.90 so long as 31.65 is not recovered.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) The 147-00/147-14 corrective bounce target was tested to within 1 tick Wednesday. Its half-point reaction down was shallow. So long as 146-00/146-06 were to hold as support, the bounce target’s upper-end should at least be attacked.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The 88.80 bounce limit (basis Feb, 88.30 basis Jan) was tested Wednesday morning. Its test caused hesitation. But its test also soon provided an inflection point for a surge that extended up to 90.33. A second consecutive close would put into play 99.00. So, new lows would require immediately rejecting Wednesday’s surge.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s failure to extend above Friday and Monday’s ~3.37 highs undermined the breakout. Wednesday’s gap down back to last weeks’ lows around 3.28 now requires that another recovery attempt above 3.37 gain traction and extend to at least 3.58.

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Posted in Daily Spot