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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 20, 2012 - 2:41 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Symmetrical Patterns are neat, because they often break falsely in one direction and then reverse more substantially in the opposite direction. That’s the pattern that launched Gold’s renewed plunge Thursday — after Wednesday failed to confirm Tuesday’s plunge. Overkill?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s 79.09 gap low was filled Thursday. A bounce tried to recover back into positive territory and was still testing Wednesday’s 79.35 high. Now any higher close would trigger a rally to 79.79 or 80.25.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The structure including Wednesday’s 1.3313 gap high was attacked Thursday to 1.3308, close enough to qualify as filling it. Potential to a fresh high at 1.3330 was not fulfilled before dipping back into negative territory under Wednesday’s 1.3245 low. Now any lower close would trigger a corrective dip targeting 1.3140 or 1.3040.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s non-confirmation session was nonetheless followed by another plunge Thursday to 1636.00, rivaling Tuesday’s $35 dive. Having originated from an overnight Symmetrical Triangle, closing back above 1652.00-1657.00 would signal the drop had been absorbed, allowing a bounce to either 1700.00 or 1717.00.

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Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s plunge extended the decline considerably below its 30.90 target to 29.63. A bounce to 31.65 should follow so long as 29.50 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Wednesday’s shallow corrective bounce was extended Thursday. up to 147-04. That’s still not very aggressive, but it was reversed back into negative territory. Closing under 146-06 would trigger at least a retest of the 145-18 low.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday morning’s pullback recovered to probe Wednesday’s 90.25-90.33 highs — but only slightly, up to 90.55. RSI diverged negatively and Wednesday’s highs were still being tested. Despite the rally’s hesitation, not closing back under 89.65 Friday would allow the rally to extend, with potential up to 99.00.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s gap up rejected Wednesday’s semi-Island, resuming Tuesday’s lackluster rally attempt. Tuesday’s 3.45 high was probed, and there is no bullish reason to further delay rallying aggressively higher into the weekend.

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Posted in Daily Spot