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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | December 21, 2012 - 3:03 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s reaction up from support nearly sealed a bottom. But that’s what Mondays are for.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) the 79.79 corrective bounce target was nearly met by Friday’s gap up that extended sharply higher intraday. It remains in-play so long as 79.55 holds as support.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s reaction down from retesting 1.3313 extended down Friday to 1.3170. The initial 1.3140 target remains in-play so long as 1.3225 is not recovered.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s test of the 1636.00-1639.00 area was repeated somewhat overnight before Friday’s rally back up to and through 1652.00-1657.00. The range’s upper-end was still being tested throughout the afternoon. Closing Monday above 1665.00-1667.00 would confirm momentum having reversed up.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Holding 29.50 as support suggests a bounce underway targeting at least 31.65.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Two consecutive shallow tests of the 147-00/147-12 bounce target’s lower-end kept alive potential for probing the range more thoroughly. Friday’s gap up to the range’s upper-end held its test. Despite extending at one point up to 147-23, the strength still seemed subdued relative to the stock market decline, suggesting its bounce was only temporary.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s retest of 90.25 resistance was rejected by Friday’s break back under 89.65, which extended down to test 88.00. Another test of 86.80 is likely so long as 88.88 now holds as resistance. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close Monday would all but marginalize buyers, so look out above if the reversal down fails.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s probe of Tuesday’s high all but required that Friday extend higher sharply, or else a rally would be unlikely. Trending up immediately Monday could serve by proxy for Friday’s sideways range.

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Posted in Daily Spot