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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 4, 2013 - 3:39 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Nobody expects the… Spanish Inquisition! And nobody expects Gold to tumble $70 in two days. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have rallied high enough to be able to tumble so far, so quickly. Entering the new year in rally mode fulfilled the recent buy signal’s objective, but the quick rejection is surprising, nonetheless.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The extended 80.55-80.75 target was probed early Friday to almost 81.00. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower, but never turned negative, so no sell signal is yet calculable.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The extended 1.3035 target was probed down to 1.3005, reversing intraday to close slightly positive above 1.3075. Not extending the decline immediately Monday would allow a corrective bounce up to 1.3180.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s post-close tumble under 1675.00 needed to hold 1662.00 to maintain any bounce potential. The drop was otherwise vulnerable to extending down, but not necessarily sharply. The overnight to fresh lows at 1626.00 wasn’t predicted. It is a shock to the system that will require being absorbed. Bounces should hold 1652.00-1657.00, and probing any higher would be considered a short-entry opportunity.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s new low testing 29.25 is a shock to the system that will need to be absorbed before a buy signal can form. There is meanwhile room for noise down to 29.00.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s extended drop not only confirmed 143-30 being in-play, but also limited the extent of a corrective bounce. The target was met early Friday down to 143-17. A bounce up to 144-21 Friday afternoon has pretty much used up all available room before extending down to the next target area at 142-26/143-06

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Not having extended the rally Thursday, a deeper pullback became likely. Its 91.25 pullback limit was attacked down to 91.52. The recovery to close positive should not delay extending the rally to fresh highs.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Strength on Friday’s EAI release was subdued, still leaving no actionable parameters.

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Posted in Daily Spot