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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 8, 2013 - 2:56 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s double-digit bounce Tuesday seemed impressive. On its face. But it accomplished nothing that Sunday night’s rally had not done already. Getting ready to launch a recovery, or finished correcting last week’s drop?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Having gapped up, Tuesday’s narrow ranging in positive territory formed “ineffectual optimism,” but left room down to 80.20 before fresh highs at 81.05 is discounted.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Fresh highs overnight testing 1.3145 reversed all of Monday’s gain from Friday’s close, and 61.8% of the gain from Monday morning’s low. The rally can resume to test 1.3180 so long as 1.3050 holds as support.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s gap up to 1652.00 extended higher intraday to attack Sunday night’s 1662.70 high. Closing above 1666.00 would make the decline more difficult to resume, which is meanwhile the likelier scenario.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping up Tuesday above 30.25 held up throughout the day. A second consecutive close above 30.50 would put into play 31.65. There otherwise remains risk to at least retest 29.75-29.85 support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s fresh highs should now have stretched the rubber band tightly enough for the decline to snap back into play back under 144-18. Bouncing any higher above 145-16 would suggest the decline was not going to continue soon.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Surging at Tuesday’s open kept the door open to rallying, as no further delay would have been tolerable. But now the same rule can be applied to Wednesday, which should not further delay rallying.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Gapping down Tuesday and extending only slightly lower did not gain traction. This is “ineffectual pessimism” and recovering 3.33 would unleash buying pressure.

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Posted in Daily Spot