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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 11, 2013 - 2:52 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight I thought Gold’s surge Thursday seemed odd. It wasn’t predicted, and it didn’t make the prospects any less unattractive. So it’s not surprising that Friday’s plunge retraced it all. Now, will Monday’s pattern fulfill the attack on prior lows?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The decline’s next lower target at 79.65 was tested throughout Friday. The trend remains down so long as 79.85 is not recovered.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Thursday’s surge off of Wednesday’s 1.3050 pullback limit test extended higher Friday to fulfill the 1.3315 target. A pullback has room down to 1.3260 before signaling momentum has reversed down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday’s surge was still testing 1675.00 resistance so it did not gain traction. Friday’s plunge back down under 1657.00 to 1653.00 suggests that the false break is being unwound and reversed. Under 1652.00 would target a retest of 1637.40, after which closing back above 1640.50 could seal a bottom. Bounces meanwhile should hold 1666.00 as resistance.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s new breakout attempt was unlikely to be confirmed since neither was Tuesday’s breakout attempt. The sequence was fulfilled by Friday’s plunge. At least 30.25 held as support to prevent a new downleg from beginning.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s drop was retested Friday, but only to react up from 144-11 to 145-16. That was the same resistance whose test launched Thursday’s drop. Its reaction down must repeat without delay Monday to avoid fresh highs targeting 147-00.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s breakout attempt to 94.70 seemed odd after Wednesday’s inside day had destroyed the pattern’s timing. A durable rally would be unlikely without first dipping back down to 91.25. It now seems that Thursday’s breakout attempt was a false break, having dipped Friday back into the recent range’s 92.75b lower end.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s probe back above two sets of prior lows is attacking 3.37-3.44 resistance. Its test should hold if tested without first pulling back to 3.20 for refueling.

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Posted in Daily Spot