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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 15, 2013 - 2:58 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Yesterday I noted how last week’s trending in Gold, Bonds and Natural Gas had residual effect Monday. Their moves extended Tuesday, but a chink in the armor appeared with the Euro reversing course sharply.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) A reaction down from Tuesday’s test of the 79.85 bounce limit should hold 79.70 to maintain potential for extending the bounce to 80.50.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday afternoon’s dive attacked the 1.3260 pullback objective, after the open gapped down. That’s a lot of selling pressure, making a test of 1.3260 that much likelier to hold.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday’s recovery had held 1675.00 resistance to avoid retracing all of Thursday’s rally. Any higher becomes unlikely to retest recent lows down to 1637.40. So, Tuesday’s fresh highs at 1685.00 suggest the recent lows won’t be retested, not unless Wednesday’s open were to gap under 1675.00 and trend down sharply.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s extension of the recovery attacked near-term resistance at 31.65, which is in-play so long as 31.00 now holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s probe above 145-16 was retraced entirely, but only back to unchanged levels. Tuesday’s open gapped up above Monday’s 146-00 high, and also ranged flat-to-lower. This pattern is not gaining traction, but its gains can continue indefinitely. Back under 145-16 would signal momentum reversing down.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s late bounce back to 94.20 resistance was probed briefly overnight, but mostly rejected Tuesday afternoon by sliding down to 93.20, keeping alive potential for extending down to 91.25.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Extending immediately to 3.44 without first dipping to refuel buyers will undermine any higher close from gaining traction to become a new rally leg.

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Posted in Daily Spot