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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 22, 2013 - 3:19 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Monday night’s BOJ move shook up currencies, but only the Yen avoided settling back within its recent range. Can Gold and Crude Oil rally if the Dollar is stuck in a range?

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Although 79.85 held as support Tuesday, failing to close above Friday’s high prevented signaling the rally would extend any higher.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The BOJ move triggered a volatile reaction that attacked both 1.3380 above and 1.3260 below. Neither was actually touched or even probed, suggesting that the next breakout attempt may be productive, but still fail and reverse more substantially in the opposite direction.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Narrowly touching the 1685.00 pullback limit resolved up in time for the rally to resume through Tuesday’s open, still suggesting that higher highs up to 1720.00 are in-play. But there is no bullish reason to further delay probing above 1700.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Holding the 31.65 pullback limit Friday kept alive momentum next targeting 32.50, which was attacked to within 15 cents Tuesday by fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday overcame a test of 145-16 support to reverse up into positive territory, testing higher prior lows” at 146-00 and filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s 146-04 close. Back under 145-16 would now qualify as a sell signal.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The rally targeting 99.00 might have resumed Tuesday with fresh highs being probed up to 96.40. The rally cannot afford to hesitate before printing more fresh highs, and back under 95.70 could trigger a deeper corrective slide.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The extended bounce’s lack of refueling didn’t prevent Tuesday from probing fresh highs up to 3.64. Its reaction down to 3.50 was recovered back into positive territory, ultimately failing to improve. Back under 3.44 would suggest the corrective dip targeting 3.25 was underway.

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Posted in Daily Spot