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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | January 30, 2013 - 2:39 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s surge Wednesday tried to undermine the bearish scenario. Good job. But the bullish scenario remains suspect. Meanwhile, the long bond held a test of its target, allowing it to greet the Employment Situation report in bounce mode.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Rather than immediately reject Tuesday’s break lower, Wednesday’s gap down extended to fresh lows testing 79.25, targeting 79.05.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s break higher wasn’t rejected immediately Wednesday, and instead extended to fresh highs attacking 1.3600, targeting 1.3635-1.3640 so long as 1.3460 now holds as support.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s opening surge immediately recovered Tuesday’s high and 1670.00 to undermine the downleg’s momentum. The bounce could test 1687.00-1691.00 before considering it to be a new upleg. Otherwise, closing back under 1677.00 would suggest the bounce had ended, and back under 1670.00 would resume the decline targeting a test of 1637.40.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) The corrective bounce extended to test 32.25, which could prove very bearish if extended up to 32.50 without first completing the pullback down to 30.25.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s retracement back to Monday’s 143-04 lows extended down Wednesday to probe the 142-26 target down to 142-19. Its reaction up on the FOMC statement probed back above 143-04 to rob sellers of their traction. Closing back above 143-18 should signal momentum reversing up, potentially greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report in rally mode.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s pre-open probe of fresh highs tested 98.25. Not printing above 98.00 intraday suggests that pessimism remains alive and well, enough so that squeezing outstanding shorts can fulfill the minimum 99.00 target.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Wednesday’s gap up immediately recovered 3.29 to signal the pullback had held its 3.25 target. The 3.36 confirmation was only attacked.

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Posted in Daily Spot