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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 1, 2013 - 3:10 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Friday’s Employment Situation report had quite an effect on Currencies and Gold, which swung widely during the morning. Will Monday trend, or just be spent absorbing Friday’s shock to the system? Regardless, not trending any further would suggest that these extremes will hold for some time.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The 79.05 target was attacked ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Its  reaction down to 78.91 was recovered, and the balance of the session ranged around 79.05. No lower target is in-play.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The 1.3635-1.3640 target was already being probed ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Volatility around it touched 1.3715. Now back under 1.3635 would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Despite rallying sharply to attack Wednesday’s 1685.00 highs up to 1683.00, the reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report sent price plummeting again to 1662.50. And despite probing back above the 1675.00 bounce limit intraday, closing back under 1669.00-1670.00 confirmed the rally attempt’s rejection. Still, a second consecutive lower close was avoided, which would have signaled the new downleg underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday morning’s rally was retraced entirely, keeping alive potential for the pullback to reach its 30.25 objective.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Still testing 143-04 resistance at Thursday’s close prevented having any confidence in an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up on Friday’s Employment Situation report from gaining traction. The reaction up did probe above 143-18 to 144-13, but still reversed back down to test 143-04 and under 142-26 to put into play 141-26 so long as 143-04 is not recovered.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Repeated dipping to 97.00 never gained traction, and a recovery extended Friday back up to test the 98.25 highs, leaving the 99.00 target intact.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Thursday’s test of 3.36 resistance didn’t fair any better Friday, and its recovery is still needed to trigger a new rally leg.

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Posted in Daily Spot