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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 4, 2013 - 2:57 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Monday’s big reaction among currencies after they tested their targets Friday does suggest that a durable extreme has printed. But that extreme (i.e. Friday’s extreme) should still be retested.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s open gapped up above Friday’s range. It’s not an Island, but it does suggest that a bounce is underway to 79.85. Friday’s test of the decline’s 79.05 target is likely to be repeated, and is capable of forming a durable bottom.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Monday’s open gapped down under Friday’s range. It’s not an Island, but it does suggest that a pullback is underway to the rally’s 1.3465-1.3475 prior target. Friday’s test of the rally’s 1.3635-1.3640 target is likely to be repeated, and is capable of forming a durable top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Gapping Monday down to probe briefly under 1665.00 support and then bouncing to test 1475.00 resistance — still testing 1475.00 at the close — failed again to signal that trending either way had resumed.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Monday’s gap down expended too much energy to extend down any further. Its reaction filled the gap back to Friday’s 31.90 close without closing above it. The next trending attempt is likely to extend in that direction.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s gap up immediately rejected Friday’s close under 142-26. Its reaction up probed above 143-18, but was still testing it into the close instead of recovering it. Buyers gained no traction for their effort.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The repeated testing of 97.00 support had held Friday, but Monday’s open gapped down under it to test 96.00. Tuesday’s open must reject this immediately by gapping up back above 97.00, or else a deeper dip to 94.20 is probably underway.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) While waiting for the potential to trigger a buy signal above 3.36, Monday’s dip retested the pullback’s 3.25 target. The test held, but still no buy signal has triggered.

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Posted in Daily Spot