Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long bond gapped down to attack last week’s lows, underscoring that Monday’s recovery effort had stopped short of credulity. But there is still a burden of proof on sellers to follow-through Wednesday.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) The bounce’s 79.85 target was attacked both overnight and intraday Tuesday. Back under 79.40 should signal the retest underway of the decline’s 79.05 target.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) The pullback’s 1.3465-1.3475 target was met Monday night, triggering a reaction up to 1.3600 Tuesday, targeting a retest of the rally’s 1.3635-1.3640 target, probably to 1.3680.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Closing AT 1675.00 Monday undermined buyers only enough for Tuesday’s surge to 1687.00 to react down sharply to probe under 1669.00. Still testing AT 1675.00 Monday’s close prevented the reaction down from gaining traction. Tuesday’s close was again testing 1675.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s narrow ranging avoided extending in either direction. But it did retest 32.00 again. Any further delay in breaking higher should soon break lower, if not already breaking lower at Wednesday’s open.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s failure to close above 143-18 wouldn’t have been a problem had it not been probed intraday. But it was, so the consequence was to gap down Wednesday under 143-04 and to probe under 142-26. Any lower close Wednesday would confirm that 141-26 is in-play.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Monday’s gap under 97.00 might have been “ineffectual pessimism,” mostly since it failed to extend down intraday, but also because Tuesday gapped back up. Tuesday’s gap up failed to extend higher, suggesting that it might be “ineffectual optimism.” The alternating sequence tends to favor the latter setup, so immediate strength Wednesday would be credible for extending the rally to 99.00.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The 3.36 buy signal was tested Tuesday, and essentially still being tested through the close. Immediate strength Wednesday would be credible for launching a rally leg.
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