Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold seems to have reached an inflection point, both in price and in time. Optimistically avoiding a touch of prior lows Friday, despite gapping down and ranging almost exclusively in negative territory, should either compensate for the delay Monday by capitulating downward, or else rally sharply to prove Friday’s buyers right for having absorbed the day’s sellers (the past week’s sellers, too, for that matter).
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Thursday night’s dip bounced off of its 80.05 pullback limit to retest Thursday’s 80.35 highs, leaving 81.05 in-play so long as the pullback limit continues to hold.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Friday’s opening weakness extended down slightly into the weekend. The second consecutive lower close that all but requires there to be a third lower close — not necessarily consecutive, although currencies do tend to duplicate Friday’s behavior on Mondays. The next lower support at 1.3275 is in-play so long as bounces hold 1.3465-1.3475.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday afternoon’s slide back to its morning’s lows extended into Friday’s opening gap down. Despite the extended momentum, optimism prevented even touching Thursday’s lows. Intraday bounces peaked repeatedly upon testing 1669.00-1670.00 resistance, closing back at the 1666.00 session lows. The decline should extend down forcibly Monday without delay if it intends to extend down at all. The entire bearish scenario depends largely upon holding 1675.00 as resistance.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s narrowing range that optimistically avoided even touching Thursday’s 31.30 low suggests that any lower low Monday will slide aggressively back to 30.90 and lower.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday’s probes above 143-18 weren’t credible, which Friday’s opening slide to 143-00 confirmed. The test of 143-04 held, and narrow ranging around 143-18 through the afternoon avoided either extending higher or reacting down. Not resuming the drop almost immediately Monday would have potential for extending the corrective bounce temporarily to 145-03.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s opening surge peaked under 97.00 and reversed back under Thursday’s 95.55 low. The price action had no predictive value, other than to further solidify the current range’s attraction, which will undermine or abbreviate the next attempt to trend away from it.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s weakness wasn’t substantial, and barely avoided touching the critical 3.25 support, but its timing all but requires the rally attempt to resume Monday without further delay to avoid becoming a downleg targeting new lows.
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