Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold bounced Tuesday from within $2 of its long-standing target. This impatience reflects optimism, which helps to confirm that the target will need to be probed considerably to form a bottom.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Monday’s high was not retested Tuesday, which suggests that the bounce’s momentum has peaked. In fact, the reaction down to 80.05 fell as far as possible without launching a new downleg. Any lower would likely gain traction, but a sideways range could meanwhile develop.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s probe above Monday’s high tested the bounce’s 1.3465-1.3475 bounce limit, but essentially ranged around Monday morning’s high.While the bounce has probably ended, there is not yet any signal that momentum is about to reverse back down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Attacking the 1637.40 target to within $2 Tuesday launched a bounce back to the 1653.00-1654.00 bounce limit. The impatience reflects optimism that confirms the target’s test won’t be the low. It could still be the beginning of a bottom, but it must first be tested.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s low stopped short of the decline’s 30.25 target before bouncing back into Monday’s range. The drop should still extend, so long as 31.05 holds tests as resistance.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday’s delay in resuming the decline did not necessarily default to a bigger corrective bounce being underway. Tuesday’s gap down also delayed resuming the decline by narrowly avoiding a test of 143-04. Breaking any lower, or back above 144-00, should extend in that direction.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s gap up above 97.00 extended to test 97.80, which suggests a quick test of the 99.00 target is underway. Back under 96.60-96.75 would signal the rally effort had failed and that momentum was reversing down.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Tuesday’s initial firming to 3.30 reacted down to test 3.25 support. Nothing short of a fresh high — preferably above 3.33 — would still signal a new upleg underway. Any further delay past Wednesday’s open would all but require trending down to new lows.
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