Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold’s plunge Friday fulfilled all outstanding objectives. And then it created more. Price potential was addressed in the Chartroom and is summarized below. More important is the lesson that Fridays are dangerous days to try “catching falling knives.” The bottom is getting closer, but it’s still not here.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Not extending higher Friday helps to confirm that the upper-end of a wider trading range is forming.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) A fresh low Thursday night was imperceptible intraday Friday, which only firmed, further suggesting that the lower-end of a wider trading range is forming.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s plunge of nearly $40 to probe under 1597.00 fulfills the expectations for fresh lows. Capitulation on a Friday does not form a durable bottom. So long as bounces now hold 1610.00, fresh lows are likely to test 1589.00-1592.00. Back above 1618.00 first would trigger another bounce prior to resuming the decline.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Probing under the 30.25 target to at least test the 30.00 area was fulfilled Friday down to 29.71. The drop’s momentum remains intact with potential down to 29.30-29.35 so long as 30.25 holds as resistance. But closing back above 30.50-30.65 would signal a new rally leg underway targeting 33.55 and higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Ranging around 143-04 Friday kept the downleg targeting 141-26 from resuming. Closing under 142-26 would confirm the downleg underway. Back above 143-18 would more likely bounce first to 145-03.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Friday’s open wasn’t immediately rallying. More like trending down, gapping and sliding through 96.60-96.75 support. By not exploiting the time that Thursday’s gap up had bought, the 99.00 objective won’t be reinstated until closing back above 96.75.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Friday’s narrow ranging did not invalidate Friday’s break, but neither does it seem to be offering a confirming second consecutive lower close. That wouldn’t be a bottom, nor would it preclude lower lows, but it does make a lower low attractive for long-entry.
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