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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 22, 2013 - 2:16 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro’s slide seemed a distant memory much of Friday. But ranging sideways around the low close into the weekend can imply a false sense of stability. Stability at this stage of the pattern requires obvious strength. If not recovering immediately to compensate for the delay, at least another intraday dive is likely Monday.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Fresh highs intraday up to 81.70 still held 81.55 resistance, suggesting the rally had peaked, but not that momentum has yet reversed down.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Room for noise down to 1.3145 was tested Friday morning before bouncing back into positive territory. The drop did not extend, but neither was it rejected.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The 1575.00 pullback limit was thoroughly tested as support Friday. Resuming the corrective bounce might depend upon immediately recovering 1581.00 Monday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Friday’s gap down, probed fresh lows at 28.35-28.40, and spent the entire session in negative territory, but ultimately held its test of Thursday’s prior low. The afternoon’s low even reacted up from testing the morning’s low. This is “ineffectual pessimism,” and would make any initial strength above 28.65 Monday likely to rally sharply intraday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Thursday night’s reaction down held 143-18 support. Friday’s inside day was suspiciously strong considering the stock market rally undermined any flight-to-safety. Ignoring other sell setups from lower levels throughout the week presaged the stock market weakness. The corrective bounce targeting 145-03/145-06 remains intact.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Thursday’s narrow ranging around 93.00 limited any recovery potential, so Thursday’s lows were retested Friday down to 92.44. But the session could still be defined as ranging around 93.00. Any immediate recovery attempt would likely fail.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) The prior sessions’ sideways ranging extended into the weekend.

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Posted in Daily Spot