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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 25, 2013 - 2:39 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond’s relative strength Friday had seemed a little strong for a stock market in recovery. Usually, bonds win those disagreements. With Monday’s surge fulfilling the corrective bounce targets, now the question is whether that’s only a corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Friday’s redundant failure to extend above 81.55 was corrected overnight down to 81.17. That allowed a new upleg to test 82.00. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday is unlikely, regardless of how much higher might be probed intraday.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) That Friday’s stable ranging at 1.3145 support was deceptive proved to be the understatement of the year. An overnight rally into Monday’s open at 1.3320 was reversed entirely to probe Friday’s low down to 1.3080, putting into play 1.3026.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Friday’s pullback to test 1575.00 recovered to fresh highs Sunday night at 1594.00. The 1596.50-1601.00 corrective bounce target remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 1584.00 as support, which was tested at Monday’s low.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Sunday night’s recovery above the 28.65 buy signal extended higher to 29.20, above the two prior sessions’ highs. The bounce is targeting 29.75 so long as 28.65 holds as support.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Monday morning’s weakness still seemed grudging, and in fact it was. The dip to 143-09 was reversed up through the 145-03/145-06 target to 145-19. Closing above 146-06 would signal a much bigger bounce targeting above 148-00. Otherwise, there is room down to 144-18 before signaling momentum is reversing down, confirmed under 144-00.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Despite probing higher overnight to test 94.00, price reversed back down to test 93.00 which has proved very magnetic over several sessions. Closing above Monday morning’s 94.46 high would signal that momentum had reversed up.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Apparently 3.33 resistance has been chipped away by its repeated testing into the weekend. Monday’s open gapped up sharply above it to test 3.42. A pullback to 3.36 would be normal before extending higher reliably..

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Posted in Daily Spot