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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | February 27, 2013 - 2:34 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight I noted yesterday that Gold’s $35 surge reaction to Bernanke’s first day of Humphrey-Hawkins testimony was probably an isolated incident. Wednesday’s reversal confirmed that, already meeting its objective. Now Gold should range choppily as it absorbs the volatility. So… I expect it to be obvious by Thursday’s close that Crude Oil is attracting Gold’s action.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s gapd down only tested lower prior highs at 81.55, whose break would target a temporary dip to 81.25 before retesting the 82.05 resistance.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s ranging persisted through Wednesday, and narrowed. Back above 1.3140-1.3185 would target 1.3300, but only as a corrective bounce before resuming the decline.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s drop confirmed that Tuesday’s reaction to Bernanke was an isolated incident. Having held 1618.00 resistance, the reaction probed under its 1595.50-1601.00 objective down to 1594.00. A bounce has room up to 1610.00, and a further dip has room down to 1584.00, without either one signaling trending underway.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s gap down extended to test 28.85, natural support where Monday’s open had gapped up. The 29.85 objective remains in-play, preferably to be tested by the weekend if valid.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Not gapping down Wednesday back into 145-03/145-06 to begin a new downleg, the pattern followed its likelier path of ranging sideways to retest 146-06 resistance. Its reaction down filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 145-16 close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Still ranging narrowly around 93.00, but starting to behave impatiently. The first trending attempt beyond either end of the 92.00-94.00 is likely to be false, and rejected more substantially in the opposite direction.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) No pullback from Tuesday’s 3.42 close down to 3.36 intervened before Wednesday’s open gapped up to 3.47 and extended higher intraday to 3.55. The lack of a pullback might be why the entire rally was retraced back down to 3.42. Now there is big resistance at 3.47, and an attraction outstanding back down to 3.30-3.33.

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Posted in Daily Spot