Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Gold’s extended decline may have resumed the hunt for new lows prematurely. My premise for Crude Oil coming alive depends upon Gold action coming down, which seems unlikely Friday. Perhaps the next pop in Gold will be accompanied simultaneously by a false break lower in Crude Oil, before each reverses more substantially.
Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) An overnight dip to 81.55 was recovered back above Wednesday’s highs on Thursday, but without signaling the rally’s resumption.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Wednesday night’s test of 1.3140 buy signal was retraced back into the range Thursday. A fresh high would still target 1.3185 and 1.3300.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) The reaction down from Tuesday’s Bernanke surge went on to retrace all the way back down to and through its 1584.00 origin by $10. A corrective bounce was expected before reversing all the way back down to the lows. Now a corrective bounce would be triggered above 1584.00 targeting 1596.50, but this leg may intend to test 1562.50, first.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Thursday’s drop back down to last Friday’s 28.40 close does not signal momentum reversing down, but it does make the rally difficult to resume without first probing fresh lows under 28.30. Back above 29.00 first would target 29.85 and probably 30.20.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) (Rolling coverage to Jun front-month which trades at a 1-16 discount to Mar) Having only dipped down to 143-19/143-22 instead of gapping down, no sell signal was triggered. Thursday’s gap up to test 144-00 drifted back down into negative territory. There is potential to continue drifting a little lower, but no active sell signal.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) The narrow ranging around 93.00 persisted through Thursday. The range’s first breakout is still expected to be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. The first break is likely to be down, but I would prefer fading the break instead of positioning for it.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Spiky action around the EIA report retested Wednesday’s 3.47 opening gap. Its resistance held, leaving outstanding an attraction back down to 3.30-3.33 before a credible rally can begin. Nevertheless, closing first back above Wednesday’s 3.55 high — now that its opening gap has filled — can get a benefit of the doubt for being able to extend higher, so long as 3.47 then holds as support.
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