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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | March 5, 2013 - 2:26 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s failed opening surge Tuesday all but confirms that the pattern requires fresh lows before any rally would be credible.

Dollar Basket Mar Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Tuesday’s gap down held 82.05 as support intraday, which had been probed overnight. The opportunity to form an Island Reversal is no longer possible. But a test of 82.37 that reverses back down under 82.25 could trigger a steep downleg.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Tuesday’s narrowly ranging day did not trigger a signal. Back above 1.3105-1.3113 would signal momentum reversing up and potentially targeting 1.3185 and 1.3300.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday’s pre-open test of 1584.00 was reversed back down to 1571.00, testing 1575.00 into the close. The pattern through Monday’s close had already made new lows likely. The reversal through Tuesday’s close reinforces that likelihood.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Tuesday’s open above 29.00 was retraced almost entirely back to Monday’s 28.50 close, still testing 28.65 at the close. A fresh low remains likely, so long as 28.65 continues holding tests as resistance.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday’s open gapped down from testing 144-22 resistance to 143-20, which was last week’s sell signal. Its retest held again, but now 143-30 must be recovered to avoid any lower low from gaining traction.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Firming throughout Tuesday to test 90.75 resistance enables a recovery Wednesday to gain traction above 91.45, but it must be in-play at the open to be credible.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) A gap up to fresh highs Tuesday probed above last week’s 3.55 high to attack 3.60. Back under 3.55 and 3.52 would signal momentum reversing down, but there is otherwise potential for extending higher.

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Posted in Daily Spot