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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | March 21, 2013 - 2:44 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The Euro had immediately tested its bounce limit Wednesday without extending higher, so Thursday’s dip suggests the decline has resumed.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Ranging sideways Thursday, since Wednesday actually, suggests that the trending attempt will be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Having held the 1.2955 bounce limit Wednesday, Thursday’s gap down is presumed to be resuming the decline. One more blip-up to 1.2955 can’t yet be discounted.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s pullback from the 1615.00 target never extended under a relevant level to suggest that momentum might be reversing down. Instead, Thursday’s quick recovery spent the balance of the session ranging around 1615.00, but yet extending higher or being rejected.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The recent dip to 28.65 support helped to confirm a bottom was forming. Thursday’s sharp rally to immediately probe above the 29.10 buy signal spent the session hovering  just above it. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm, so long as pullbacks hold above 29.10.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite gapping down Wednesday, another gap down Thursday was required if the trend was actually reversing down. Instead, the session traded calmly around Wednesday’s range.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Having stopped short of 94.00, Wednesday’s recovery attempt was underwhelming, but left the door open to an overwhelming rally Thursday. Instead, recent tests of the 91.90 pullback limit was repeated. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm momentum has reversed down.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s shallow optimistic dip resolved up Thursday to test the 4.00 target, then reacted back down to Wednesday’s lows under 3.90. Any lower close would have and still could signal a bigger drop underway, confirmed under 3.85.

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Posted in Daily Spot