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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | March 22, 2013 - 3:46 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Despite its 2-day rally, the Euro left a gap outstanding below that should inhibit its recovery. Meanwhile, Gold seems oblivious to the currency’s gyrations, still stuck in a narrow range.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Friday’s dipped deeper into the 82.52-82.40 sell signal and held. Extending any lower would trigger a much deeper pullback. The rally’s resumption requires that Monday reverse up sharply.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Potential to retest 1.2955 as resistance was realized at Friday’s open. Then it broke sharply higher to also test 1.3020. Immediately breaking under 1.2955 Monday would be credible for extending down to new lows, potentially before the close. There is no buy signal, only room for extending the bounce to 1.3045 or 1.3070, while still being only a temporary bounce.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another dip from testing 1615.00 Friday down to 1602.50 still stopped short of breaking 1601.00 to launch a new downleg. The close was in the range, with no momentum in-play either way.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having never confirmed its close above the 29.10 buy signal, the pattern was vulnerable, and Friday dove to test 28.65 support. Support held, for now, and another close above 29.10 should have little difficult extending.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight retest of the 143-31 high was retraced slightly, but not enough for sellers to gain traction. A probe above 144-00 has become likelier to develop, triggered above 143-22, which essentially defined Friday afternoon’s resistance.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Is the on-again / off-again pattern now on-again? Despite Thursday’s drop back to 92.15 instead of rallying through 94.00, Friday rallied above 92.15 to attack 94.00. Since sellers never gained traction in the interim, extending higher immediately Monday would be credible for extending higher sharply.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging under 4.00 resistance continued into the weekend, holding Thursday’s lows as support, with no new signal.

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Posted in Daily Spot