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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight While Gold’s sharp rally into the weekend does confirm that sellers had run out of steam, extending much higher without delay would be more in-line with a corrective bounce, instead of patiently forming a bottom.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Fresh lows Friday now require extending under 82.50 to maintain this downleg’s 81.40 target.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s probe above 1.3010 signals a larger rally underway targeting 1.3325 so long as 1.2955 now holds as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only attacking 1547.50 overnight, Friday’s NFP triggered a $22 spike up that eventually extended higher to 1579.50. The recovery targeting 1594.50 would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Monday, and back under 1570.00 would start to signal a fresh low being possible.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s early spike above 26.95 confirms that a bottom is forming, so any dips under 27.00 should hold through the close.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 145-14 sell signal wasn’t even threatened as the rally extended sharply higher Friday up to 148-09. The rally’s momentum remains intact so long as 147-14 were to hold as support.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Having failed to bounce enough Thursday to reverse momentum up, the pattern remained vulnerable to probing fresh lows. Friday’s test of Thursday’s low down to 92.00 closed easily within Thursday’s range, suggesting that sellers are losing traction, but not necessarily that buyers are gaining any.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s basis for a Pivot Reversal indicated that almost any higher high above 3.98 could extend sharply higher into and out of the weekend. Friday’s open gapped up through it to and extended sharply higher intraday to fresh highs at 4.12. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 4.05 as support..

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