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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Neither Gold nor Silver extended Friday’s bounces Monday. That’s not necessarily bearish, and doesn’t undermine potential for extending higher Tuesday. But extending higher Tuesday would now be likely to peak.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s bounce to 82.90 recognized the Yen’s continued decline, but there remains potential for the bounce to test 82.10-83.20 before reversing back down.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging narrowly Monday as the spotlight moved to the Yen kept alive potential for extending the bounce.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s pullback to 1566.60 did not produce a second consecutive higher close that would have confirmed Friday’s close above 1575.00 was extending. But neither did it reverse momentum down, leaving the door open to fresh highs Tuesday.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow sideways ranging did not confirm momentum had reversed up. Almost any immediate trending at Tuesday’s open should be short-lived, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s probe of 147-26/148-00 had held as resistance through the close, and Monday’s opening gap down tested the 147-14 pullback limit

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Sunday night’s attack on 93.75-94.15 resistance was retraced into Monday’s open. Recovering back up to 93.25 was enough only to probe recent highs, and not to reverse momentum back up.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite extending higher initially Monday to 4.18, a reversal back into negative territory avoided confirming Friday’s breakout rally.

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