Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Crude Oil’s bad day Thursday is trying to invalidate the confirmed breakout that had been very productive through Wednesday’s close. This pattern should not only resolve one way or the other on Friday, but would also likely do so aggressively, and extend sharply into next week.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s gap down to fresh lows testing 82.15 now require that bounces hold any test of 82.45-82.50 to maintain the 81.40 target.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The rally’s minimum 1.3140 target was met Thursday. So long as pullbacks were to hold 1.3065, the rally can extend higher to 1.3325.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness down to 1553.00 was recovered intraday by rallying up to 1567.00 and retesting what had been Monday’s “higher prior lows,” and also Wednesday afternoon’s lows on the way down. It should be the bounce’s peak. Recovering 1575.00 would trigger a much bigger bounce with potential up to 1597.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s narrow range remained under the 27.90 bounce limit that keeps alive the drop’s 27.15 target.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
It’s interesting that the recent dip didn’t extend down while stocks surged to new highs. Any initial recovery attempt would be that much more credible for extending sharply higher intraday.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s breakout above 94.15 was retraced entirely Thursday back down to the pattern’s original 93.35-93.65 pullback limit. Closing back above 94.15 Friday would be credible for resuming the rally. But delaying a recovery — whether or not extending down — would be bearish.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Getting EIA out of the way allowed a recovery of Wednesday’s high and for that to extend back up to Monday’s 4.18 high. Any higher close Friday would trigger a breakout.

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