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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | May 3, 2013 - 3:12 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long-bond had met a long-awaited target Wednesday, less than two days before plunging in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. Either the bond is done and much lower lows lie ahead, or the week should begin with a sizable corrective bounce.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Improved momentarily to attack its 82.80 target up to 82.60 but ended the day testing its 82.15 pullback limit to maintain the recovery’s potential.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Had rallied overnight to 1.3150 but plunged on NFP data to retest Thursday’s 1.3040 lows. Bouncing back up to 1.3150 still ended the day testing the 1.3105 bounce limit, instead of signaling a rally underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight probe up to 1487.00 failed before Friday’s open. Another surge held 1480.00 before reversing back down to 1455.40. Ended the day down slightly around 1465.00. Continues to be potential for breaking higher to 1532.50, until a pullback actually closes under 1529.50

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s ranging gained no traction either way, keeping the door open to a deeper pullback targeting 22.95.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s reaction down from Wednesday’s test of the long-awaited 149-14 target had dipped prematurely Thursday morning back under the 148-28 sell signal. Friday’s reaction down on the Employment Situation report extended sharply lower to 146-27. Extending any lower anytime soon requires bounces to hold 147-12.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The retest of prior highs also tested 94.75 resistance early Friday, and extended to also test 96.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm 98.10 is in-play. Closing back under 94.75 should instead start trending back down.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s plunge did suddenly slow its pace come Friday. And fresh lows did probe the 3.95-4.00 support, then closed positive. Closing Monday back above 4.16 would seal a bottom.

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Posted in Daily Spot