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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Despite not gapping down Friday, Thursday”s drop extended soon after the open. A second consecutive lower close requires at least a third lower close. It need not be consecutive, but it may be attempted since Monday morning”s often duplicate Friday trending.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slight firming Thursday night was retraced before Friday”s open, and the balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways. The requirement for at least one more lower close remains outstanding.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s narrowly ranging day keeps alive the attraction to at least one more lower close as required by there having been two consecutive lower breakout closes..

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing overnight under Thursday”s test of 143-16 support was recovered into Friday”s open and extended back above 144-04. Closing any higher would all but ensure at least a corrective bounce to attack or even to retest the week”s highs.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite having dipped Thursday so close to Monday”s night”s low under 54.00, firming overnight recovered intraday to test what was 56.05-56.35 support as resistance. I would have expected a more immediate inflection up, but the resistance did ultimately give way Friday.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Stopping Thursday optimistically short of filling the gap back to Tuesday”s 3.62 gap was potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. But sellers ran with that opening Friday and gapped down to and through my 3.56 limit. Gapping up enough Monday could form an Island Reversal, but avoiding a second consecutive lower close in any way would at least prevent confirming the breakout so the bottoming pattern could resume.