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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | May 17, 2013 - 3:03 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s third consecutive double-digit dump, on a Friday, all but invalidates the corrective dip scenario.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Room to probe above the 84.20 target to 84.45 was exploited Friday by gapping up, extending to fresh highs and then ranging narrowly. Holding 83.95 as support would allow the rally to next target 85.30.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s gap down extended to fresh lows and ranged sideways through the afternoon. Bounces holding 1.2910 would allow the decline to extend to its next target at 1.2745.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another double-digit plunge, and on a Friday, seriously undermine whether the recent drop has been only a temporary corrective pullback. The gap back down to Thursday’s open was filled overnight, but reactions up were shallow and temporary before reversing to fresh lows testing 1357.50. Closing solidly above 1383.00 could still reverse the decline, which is meanwhile targeting 1333.00 and new lows.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap down to Wednesday’s 22.42 low eventually extended to fresh lows at 22.18, extending toward the next lower target at 21.55-21.75, so long as 22.75 isn’t recovered.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s extension to a new multi-session high testing 145-16 while also triggering the 144-24 buy signal required the rally to extend immediately Friday if valid. It did not. The session slid back toward prior lows testing 143-28. Not exiting Monday morning in rally mode would all but require extending through the 143-13 sell signal to put 142-18 into play.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Immediately testing 96.00 at Friday’s gap up triggered a reaction back down into negative territory. Recovering back into positive territory at 96.00 still did not trigger the buy signal that would put into play 98.10.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down toward 3.90 came from Wednesday’s unimpressive tests of the 4.05 buy signal. Friday’s recovery back to 4.05 was impressive. Closing above it still targets 4.16, whose recovery would launch a new upleg.

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Posted in Daily Spot