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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | June 5, 2013 - 2:46 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight If Crude Oil intends to rally, its delay in extending Wednesday’s gap up now suggests a more aggressive beginning is needed to confirm.

Dollar Basket Jun Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Having held another day under the bounce limit, a retest of recent lows is still underway.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday at or under 1.3110 only further suggests at least a blip-up to fresh highs is needed before reversing down. So, reversing down first would be premature.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s test of 1390.00 and 1393.50 may have chipped away at their support, but first they launched a bounce back up toward Monday’s highs at 1410.00 that resolved down. Fresh highs would be credible for extending higher, while the next dip to 1390.00 and 1393.50 should be in the form of a plunge.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up tried extending higher only to range sideways and close at session lows. Closing back under 22.35 would resume the decline next targeting 21.80 — actually, closing back under 22.35 should extend without delay to 21.80

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s testing of 140-05 was on the precipice of dropping, so Wednesday’s gap up that extended higher helped to reassert that the pattern may be bottoming. Back above 141-12 would start to signal momentum reversing up.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Wednesday’s early surge to fresh highs was consolidated back down around Tuesday’s 94.25 highs, but was otherwise maintained to put 96.00 into play, and probably also 98.10, so long as pullbacks now hold 93.45 as support.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s EIA report suggests only that the first trending attempted from the range is likely to be false. So, a fresh low that recovers back above 4.01 would be credible for launching a rally leg, but rallying first to 4.11 would more likely fail.

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Posted in Daily Spot