Notice: Function _load_textdomain_just_in_time was called incorrectly. Translation loading for the disable-gutenberg domain was triggered too early. This is usually an indicator for some code in the plugin or theme running too early. Translations should be loaded at the init action or later. Please see Debugging in WordPress for more information. (This message was added in version 6.7.0.) in /home4/jwl23/public_html/rd.johnlander.me/wp-includes/functions.php on line 6131
Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | June 17, 2013 - 2:37 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Natty Gas didn’t wait for probing its lows before threatening to end the week sharply higher. Of course, Monday’s surge might have borrowed too heavily from improving later in the week, without first trapping new shorts, so a rally isn’t yet assured.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Despite Monday morning’s tending to duplicate Friday’s bias, prior lows held as support. It’s not a buy signal, but it does undermine the decline.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Still ranging narrowly around 1.3333 Monday, while aslo fulfilling the likely probes of fresh highs. Back under 1.3303 would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s dip back down under 1383.00 helps to confirm that Friday’s surge didn’t gain traction, more so since it didn’t extend immediately this week above 1393.50. But extending down forcibly under 1377.00 and 1373.00 would be more helpful to resolving the pattern down.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not extending higher immediately Monday kept alive the attraction back down to 21.60 and lower, which Monday’s gap down quickly fulfilled.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from last week’s 140-25 target extended Monday to within a few ticks of its 139-22 signal. There is no new pattern.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The 98.10 target did not immediately reject price down, so it will likely be exceeded by extending the rally to 100.80 and 102.00 so long as pullbacks now hold 97.05.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back up Monday above 3.80 already suggested (in the strongest of terms) that Friday’s break under 3.77 wasn’t going to test new lows at 3.55-3.60. Extending higher to close above last week’s 3.85 high then signaled momentum reversing up. But pullbacks must hold 3.83 and Tuesday must extend higher to confirm the reversal. Otherwise, closing back under 3.80 — or just dipping intraday — would reject Monday’s bounce in a very big way.

[/pay]

Share your questions and comments on this post in the blog, or in the chartroom…

Posted in Daily Spot