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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
While gapping up Wednesday does suggest a lot of selling pressure has been fulfilled, that”s not the optimal bottoming pattern. A fresh low testing 1.2155 remains likely despite the pattern”s minimum requirement already having been fulfilled Tuesday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppy ranging overnight and into Wednesday”s session has formed a Symmetrical Triangle. Breaking falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction could form a durable bottom if the false break were to fulfill the 1167.50 target.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming into Wednesday”s open has further delayed the almost required fresh lows that undermine any premature recovery attempt.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having failed to hold 144-04 Tuesday, a new downleg into the close was extended down to 142-11. A recovery wouldn”t be credible until closing back above at least 142-30 (which was being tested ahead of Wednesday”s close). More so, delaying a recovery through Friday would undermine whether the past week”s drop has been only a temporary correction, instead of actually the beginnings of a much deeper decline.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Despite Tuesday afternoon having extended above 56.05-56.30 resistance — and perhaps because the extension didn”t inflect aggressively — Wednesday”s open was greeted by gapping down back under 56.05. That didn”t extend down, but even just a corrective bounce should be underway already. Not rallying by Friday morning would start being bearish.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight persisted into Wednesday”s open. Fulfilling the pattern”s minimum requirement for at least a third lower close was made easier by extending down to 3.02 intraday.