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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 1, 2013 - 3:14 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold didn’t wait for a retest of last week’s low before rallying sharply Monday. That can extend a little higher, but it undermines recovery’s durability not to have fully formed the bottom.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Monday’s gap down trended down intraday, but only slightly, and only within Friday’s range. The biased inside day setup tends to resolve in the trend’s original direction, at least to retest the recent extreme.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Monday’s gap up trended up intraday, but only slightly, and only within Friday’s range. The biased inside day setup tends to resolve in the trend’s original direction, at least to retest the recent extreme.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s open gapped up to and through the 1232.00 buy signal, and extended sharply higher, putting into play 1271.50 so long as 1248.50 and 1240.00 hold as support. Friday’s 1197.40 opening gap must still be retested.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Last week’s outperformance disappeared Monday as fresh highs up to 20.00 resistance reacted back down to almost unchanged at 19.50, while Gold soared. Closing above 19.70 would extend the rally, which must otherwise retrace to test 18.75.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite still holding above 135-00 and price firming, no rally was yet launched, and none is signaled. The ineffectual optimism ahead of this week’s econ reports is starting to become a bigger concern, since little time is remaining for a bottom to form.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
The rally resumed Sunday night to help Monday’s open gap up to probe fresh highs testing 98.30. A brief dip was recovered to retest the morning’s high. Extending higher without delay would be likely to trend through the 98.45-99.00 objective.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight were recovered in time for Monday to fluctuate around unchanged, still needing to recover 3.62 before even attacking the 3.73 buy signal.

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Posted in Daily Spot