Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight Did extreme volatility in reaction to FOMC and Bernanke shake loose some patterns, or complete their trending? Wednesday night’s extremes might be retested soon, but exceeding them might take quite some time.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s night’s plunge to 82.60 nevertheless recovered to range around 83.33 Thursday. Extending down without a corrective bounce first would be difficult.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
An overnight surge to 1.3210 was pushed back down to consolidate Thursday at 1.3020 support. Recovering 1.3020 would have signaled the decline had ended, but retracing the excessive overnight rally back down to 1.3020 makes that unclear. A rally effort Friday would be suspicious.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Now we know why despite Wednesday repeatedly failing to extend any one of its probes above Tuesday’s highs, negative territory was never probed. Optimism remained very much alive and well, reacting up sharply overnight on Bernanke. The fourth consecutive session of ranging flat-to-lower from a gap up still undermines the gaps’ cumulative gains. Back under 1271.50 and 1268.00 would signal momentum reversing back down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction to Bernanke only retested last week’s test of the 20.00 area Thursday. But if not rejected through Friday’s close, there is room for fresh highs up to 20.88.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up above Tuesday’s highs ranged around 134-04 intraday, absorbing the afternoon’s 30-year auction. Absent a second consecutive higher confirming close Friday, the gap left outstanding back down to Wednesday’s 132-28 close will need to be filled, probably on the way down to fresh lows.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Probing higher overnight to 107.45 didn’t change the likelihood for testing the 106.35 target to produce a pullback targeting 103.30 “lower prior highs,” which has so far been retraced down to 104.31.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
EIA prevented a recovery attempt back above 3.70 that was instead reversed back down to 3.55-3.60 support. Closing back above 3.73 would still trigger a rally leg.
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