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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 16, 2013 - 3:15 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Gold’s fresh high Tuesday quickly peaked, but only to range sideways through the day. Is it a resumption of last week’s string of gaps up, or a last gasp before reversing back down?

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The 82.60 low in reaction to Bernanke’s speech was all but retested Tuesday. Back above 83.00 and 83.33 would signal momentum reversing back up.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Last week’s temporary surge on Bernanke’s speech to 1.3212 was never attacked intraday, not until Tuesday’s gap up above 1.3100 extended to test 1.3165. Back under 1.3180 after testing 1.3212 — if 1.3212 were retested — would signal momentum reversing back down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s probe of fresh highs above 1288.00 and 1293.00 reacted back down twice to attack 1285.00 whose break would signal that buyers were absorbed. The session’s “ineffectual optimism” essentially requires that break to develop Wednesday, or else a bigger rally leg would be underway.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s test of 20.00 held as resistance. Back under 19.55 would be likely to extend down at an accelerated pace, potentially targeting fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s retest of 135-00 could extend to 135-16 before suggesting that a detour was underway, with potential up to 137-00 before finally filling the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 132-24 close.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Monday’s recovery back up to 106.35 resistance extended higher momentarily Tuesday before reversing back under 106.35. A deeper corrective dip to 103.30 would still be preferable to launch a more reliable rally leg targeting 110.65-110.75.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The violent rejection of Monday’s dip into 3.55-3.60 support tried extending higher Tuesday, but still failed to recover the 3.73 buy signal.

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Posted in Daily Spot