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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 19, 2013 - 3:08 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The weekend had plans for Crude Oil, and those plans differed from the open’s gap up. Its reversal into negative territory isn’t a sell signal, but it suggests that a higher high will also find ready sellers.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Thursday’s ranging around 83.00 resistance was not recovered Friday, requiring any rally to recover 83.33 before confirming its strength as being more than noise.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Friday’s session was spent entirely in positive territory, holding a test of 1.3145 resistance. Just firming that much does jeopardize the decline’s resumption, especially if the decline has not resumed through Monday’s open.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday and then firming did not resume the Pivot Reversal setup that had formed Wednesday. While the reversal hasn’t been rejected back above 1294.70, its window for extending has all but closed, leaving only a small opportunity at Monday’s open (if not Sunday night) to be obvious.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging inside day did not offer any evidence of the recent drop trying to recover.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
135-16 resistance was retested again Friday, instead of Thursday’s test extending down for a second consecutive lower close. Now almost any early strength would be vulnerable to extending sharply higher, leaving only a small window for sellers to retake control.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
A second consecutive higher close was attempted Friday by extending Thursday’s rally up to 109.30. But the session reversed into negative territory to 107.50. Extending higher Monday to test the rally’s 110.65-110.75 target would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap down spent the entire session ranging narrowly sideways in negative territory without extending down. That was not bearish. But it also avoided extending Thursday’s rally to a fresh high, which would have confirmed a rally underway. Monday and Tuesday could still offer a similar two-day signal, so long as 3.73 holds as support.

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Posted in Daily Spot