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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

By Rod David | July 24, 2013 - 3:02 pm

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight Not extending its rally Wednesday suggests that Crude Oil’s higher targets are invalid.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Wednesday’s rally tried to retrace all of the prior two sessions’ decline, which would signal the decline had ended, but must now recover 82.75 to avoid resuming the decline.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday’s decline tried to retrace all of the prior two sessions’ rally, which would signal the rally had ended, but must now break back under 1.3145 to avoid resuming the rally.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Consolidating under 1335.00 Tuesday instead of above it made fresh highs likelier than a corrective dip. Although fresh highs came immediately after the close and extended considerably up to 1348.70, Wednesday immediately reversed and extended back down to 1312.70., with potential down to 1297.50 if not recovered immediately back above 1335.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s test of 20.00 was still being tested, and must hold Thursday in order to avoid extending down to 18.88.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s half-point gap down could not confirm Tuesday’s drop from 135-16 was a momentum reversal, but extending down to test 133-16 did, suggesting 132-25 is in-play.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Tuesday’s intraday recovery had stopped short of probing above Monday afternoon’s high, which would have been optimal for signaling momentum reversing up, signaled above 107.70. Wednesday exploited the vulnerability and extended down to fresh lows testing 104.80. Reversing up immediately Thursday back above 105.75 would be credible for extending higher intraday. The drop otherwise has room down to 104.25 before considering it to be a new downleg.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesay’s initial weakness was recovered to fresh highs at 3.78, but a reversal into the afternoon fell sharply to test 3.69, again avoiding a confirming close above the 3.73 buy signal.

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Posted in Daily Spot