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Daily Spot – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Today’s Highlight The long bond ended the week optimistically back at resistance, leaving unfinished business below with another FOMC meeting just ahead.

Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
The decline had resumed Thursday with a new low close, but not yet much of a new intraday low, which Friday fulfilled. Currencies tend to duplicate Friday afternoon trending, so the drop should extend initially so long as 82.20 isn’t recovered.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The rally had resumed Thursday with a new high close, but not yet any new intraday high, which Friday fulfilled. Currencies tend to duplicate Friday afternoon trending, so the rally should extend initially so long as 1.3205 isn’t broken.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Resuming the rally proved difficult Friday, as the 1319.00-1320.00 support was tested, and probed briefly down to the 1312.50 sell signal. Recovering to close above 1319.00-1320.00 kept alive potential to extend the rally.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down under 20.00 on Friday and extending down has left unfinished business above, making a second consecutive lower close Monday unlikely, but very dangerous.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap up extended higher intraday to test 135-00 resistance. Without closing above it, attraction back down to the 132-24 gap remains intact.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Thursday’s key reversal setup was a little lacking, and then very much so as Friday gapped back down to erase Thursday’s gains and retest 104.00. Closing back above 106.00 would reinstate the rally, but there is otherwise no active pattern.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rejecting the 3.73 buy signal Thursday was punished by dropping sharply into the weekend to retest 3.55-3.60 support, which there is no bullish reason to be retesting.

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