Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes…[pay] View a more detailed discussion of each at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Today’s Highlight The long-bond’s inability to sustain upside momentum could be defensive posturing ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement. But its unfinished business below suggests either a negative reaction, or else a negative resolution will follow.
Dollar Basket Sep Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN))
Tuesday’s bounce back up to 82.10 stopped short of the 82.20 bounce limit. But the decline probably cannot afford to hesitate resuming if its momentum remains intact.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Difficulty upon testing 1.3300 resistance Tuesday reacted down and ranged narrowly sideways. Now pullbacks must hold 1.3225 to maintain the rally’s momentum next targeting 1.3330.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another dip down to 1319.00-1320.00 tried to reverse momentum down Tuesday. Monday’s bounce was probably too shallow for sellers to be refueled yet. But breaking lower would get every benefit of the doubt if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close under 1612.50. Back above 1330.00 should have little reason to further delay launching a new rally leg.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s reaction down from gapping up had stopped optimistically short of actually filling the gap back to its open. That optimism was potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Tuesday’s gap down confirmed as much, although the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around 19.65 prior lows. Back above 20.00 would resume the rally, and avoid extending down to 18.88.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction down from retesting 135-00 resistance had bounced off of 133-26. Tuesday’s narrow ranging retested the low, not invalidating that the 132-24 gap is in-play.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Further delaying a recovery back above 106.00 all but confirmed that support had been chipped away. Tuesday’s break to fresh lows probing under 103.00 should extend to 99.00 so long as Wednesday were to confirm with a second consecutive lower close.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s break was not rejected immediately even to try forming an Island Reversal. A probe of “higher prior lows” up to 3.55-3.60 would likely reverse down to retest the lows.
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